AXNT20 KNHC 090618 CCA
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
CORRECTION FOR THE SECTION FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO HISPANIOLA TO NICARAGUA...
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
FROM THE COASTAL BORDER OF LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE TO 5N20W
TO 2N30W 2N39W...CURVING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO COASTAL NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
SOUTH OF 11N TO THE EAST OF 30W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN
30W AND 50W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM COASTAL
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA TO 26N95W IN THE NORTHWESTERN WATERS.
THE COLD FRONT RUNS FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
TEXAS AS FAR TO THE SOUTH AS 27N...BEFORE CURVING MORE TO THE
WEST TO 26N102W NORTHERN MEXICO. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 26N
TO THE LOUISIANA GULF OF MEXICO COAST BETWEEN 91W AND 93W.
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE BORDER OF COASTAL NICARAGUA AND
COASTAL HONDURAS...
BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF
THE LINE FROM ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS TO 26N60W BEYOND
32N39W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS PART OF THE TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS
THE COLD FRONT THAT CONTINUES FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
NEAR 30N48W TO 23N60W TO THE WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. WHAT
APPEARS TO BE A WEAK REMNANT CLOUD LINE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...ACROSS JAMAICA...TO THE COASTAL BORDER OF
HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE CLOUD LINE FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD
FRONT...THROUGH 32N31W TO 27N50W TO 23N60W TO 21N69W. CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS COVER ALL OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EXCEPT FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF HAITI.
SIMILAR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS GO FROM NICARAGUA NEAR 13N
TO 16N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W.
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN
20W AND 30W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 9N30W TO 5N37W TO 3S30W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT GOES
FROM 32N24W TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
29N30W...TO 22N46W TO 19N64W JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.


forecast by MT
updated at 105 AM EST TUE FEB 09 2010

AXPZ20 KNHC 090947
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE FEB 09 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0915 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 06N77W
TO 08N88W TO 04N106W TO 09N131W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 123W.
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 38N125W WITH A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW TO 32N125W TO 15N137W. RIDGING IS E OF THIS FEATURE
EXTENDING FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA TO 12N106W AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL MAINTAIN ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG AND
N OF THE ITCZ. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 15N
TO 27N BETWEEN 121W AND 134W. A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS IN
PLACE IN THIS SAME AREA BETWEEN 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES
CENTERED NEAR 37N137W AND A PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM 14N116W TO 07N125W. NE-E TRADES OF 20-30 KT ARE OCCURRING
FROM 07N TO 23N W OF 120W AS INDICATED BY A 0602 UTC ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER PASS. ASCAT ALSO CAPTURED E TO SE WINDS OF 20 TO
30 KT WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS TROUGH WILL
LINGER IN THE CENTRAL EPAC DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS EXTENDING
FROM 14N113W TO 05N126W IN 24 HOURS AND THEN FROM 19N109W TO
10N120W IN 48 HOURS. THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL SHIFT SE-S TO
NEAR 30N135W IN 24 HOURS FURTHER TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT.
AS A RESULT THE AREA OF NE-E 20-25 KT TRADES WILL FURTHER EXPAND
TO THE E.
IN ADDITION...NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ON THE E SIDE OF THE HIGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS NW OF THE BAJA PENINSULA DUE TO A
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRES TROUGHING OVER
INTERIOR U.S. CALIFORNIA.
MEANWHILE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR
13N167W WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
ANTICYCLONE NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 44N140W TO THE W OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH.
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW IS IN PLACE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 16N E OF 108W. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR IN PLACE IN
THIS AREA WITH SUBSIDENCE HELPING TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION
ALONG THE ITCZ.
GAP WINDS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WILL PUSH SE
THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA
TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FUNNELED THROUGH THE
CHIVELAS PASS ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND WILL
INCREASE TO GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY WED.
ACCORDINGLY A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 12 UTC WED
THROUGH 06 UTC THU.
A 0238 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS CONFIRMED THAT WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY LESS THAN 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT THERE IN 36 HOURS AS WINDS IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN SEA BECOME EASTERLY.
THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA WILL STRENGTHEN IN 24
HOURS ENHANCING NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT BY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE


forecast by LEWITSKY